Kudos to Roy Morgan Research it appears for being the pollster who picked the swing to the ALP most closely. Their election eve poll showed a 6.2% two party preferred swing to the ALP and the results as of Sunday morning have it down as 6.15%. In anyone’s books and given the inherent issue of sampling error, thats not half bad!.
Of course one could be picky and look at the accuracy of their predictions for the marginals, but that is being unreasonably pedantic and frankly beyond the scope of any poll to be expected to get those accurate. All in all they got more right than they got wrong and on such small samples in marginal electorates thats a testament to Morgan’s methodology and Gary’s insight on how to interpret the findings.
